Commercial aircraft: Supply is improving, but the shortage is still here, and the pricing tells you where demand really is

The commercial aircraft market is finally moving in the right direction on supply. Deliveries rose meaningfully in 2025, but the industry is still not producing enough aircraft to clear the backlog quickly. The result is a market where new-generation types remain expensive and highly desired, while older-generation aircraft are starting to look more like a normal cycle, flat to slightly softer.

Supply chain issues are still present, but the trend is improving

Global deliveries of commercial passenger aircraft rose to 1,428 in 2025, up about 18% year over year, the highest since before the pandemic. At the same time, 2025 deliveries were still about 14% below the 2018 record high, and both major OEMs continue to face supply chain challenges.

So yes, the bottlenecks are easing, but the system is not back to a normal production rhythm.

Boeing and Airbus in 2025, a quick orders and deliveries snapshot

Deliveries are the cleanest scoreboard. Airbus delivered 793 aircraft in 2025, while Boeing delivered 600. Airbus’s 2025 deliveries are roughly back to 2018 levels, while Boeing’s are closer to 2012 levels, which is another way of saying Boeing has more ground to make up.

On the demand side, the backlog is still the defining feature of the market. The global passenger aircraft order backlog reached 17,175 at year-end 2025, equating to about 12 years of production at current delivery rates. Supply is improving, but the shortage is still embedded in the backlog.

What the value data is saying, the new generation stays high, the older generation flattens

When availability is constrained, pricing separates quickly by efficiency and long-run relevance.

The new generation narrowbodies are still being priced like scarce assets. The ~5-year-old B737 MAX 8 and A320neo are up about 5% in CMV from January 2025 to January 2026. That is not a market searching for a bottom. That is a market paying up for efficiency and availability now. Older B737-800 and A320ceo are essentially flat to slightly down from January 2025 to January 2026. That is still consistent with high absolute values, but it is also a reminder that even in a shortage environment, pricing can normalize at the margin when a segment gets more competitive.

Used widebody values are staying flat as well.

It is what you often see when older technology starts to lose the benefit of the doubt. Values do not have to drop sharply to signal a change. Flat is a signal too, especially when the rest of the market is still tight.

Why this divergence makes sense

If you connect the OEM backdrop to the value behavior, the logic is straightforward.

Backlog and production constraints keep the overall fleet short, supporting values across the board. Amid that shortage, demand focuses on the types that deliver the best operating economics and the lowest long-run risk, which is why new-generation narrowbodies continue to command premium pricing. Older generation aircraft can still be very liquid, especially in the right configurations. But the market is increasingly selective, and that selectivity shows up first as flat pricing and small declines, not necessarily a dramatic reprice.

A simple way to think about it

In a supply-constrained cycle, the market rations scarce lift by paying up for efficiency. New-generation aircraft remain expensive because they solve more problems for more operators. Older-generation aircraft do not collapse; they simply stop levitating.

InfoJets note: If you are evaluating fleet exposure, sale-leaseback terms, or residual risk across new- and older-generation types, we can help you connect the OEM supply picture, current lease economics, and transaction comparables into a clear valuation view.